How far are we from where we needed to be points wise?

S

shanetko

XG
Had a think about this and went through this seasons matches. A minimum expectation versus reality:

Brentford H Expect W Reality D -2
Arsenal A Expect L Reality L
Southampton H Expect W Reality L -3 (-5)
Chelsea A Expect L Reality L
Man U H Expect D Reality L -1 (-6)
Brighton A Expect D Reality L -1 (-7)
Spurs A Expect L Reality L
Forest H Expect W Reality W
Bournemouth A Expect W Reality L -3 (-10)
Palace H Expect D Reality D
Leeds H Expect W Reality W
Wolves A Expect D Reality W +2 (-8)
Man C H Expect L Reality L
Everton A Expect D Reality W +2 (-6)
West Ham A Expect D Reality W +2 (-4)
- - - - - - - - - - - -
World Cup Break
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Newcastle H Expect D Reality L -1 (-5)
Liverpool A Expect L Reality L
Fulham H Expect W Reality L -3 (-8)
Forest A Expect D Reality L -1 (-9)
Brighton H Expect D Reality D
Villa A Expect D Reality W +2 (-7)
Spurs H Expect D Reality W +2 (-5)

Can argue the toss over some of these (welcome to correct them where applicable). Tried to be flexible to the changing situations in terms of opponents standard/form at the time as the season progressed. Realistically expecting 11 draws from 22 is farcical so can’t be taken too literally however us having 5 points less than we should have been expecting at a minimum seems broadly fair.
We’re almost back to where we were before the World Cup break.
That extra 5 mythical points wouldn’t move us up the table dramatically from a positional sense but would have us only 6 points behind Europe right now.

I’m definitely not Bodgers in yet. There’s work to be done on that front. Recent signs are that we’re getting our act together though. A second FA Cup win and a strong last 16 games of the league campaign would go a long way to aid the healing ;)
🦊
 
Good work Shane, I think you've been more than fair particularly given we've dropped something like 19 points from winning positions

Those five points would put us above Villa in 11th which I think is realistic target for the rest of the season. I'm expecting a couple of Brentford, Fulham or Brighton to run out of steam eventually so we could be in with a good shout of 8th/9th. Given the 6/7 BCCs that would be good achievement given our challenges this season.
 
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‘I'm expecting a couple of Brentford, Fulham or Brighton to run out of steam eventually so we could be in with a good shout of 8th/9th.’

Blimey, is Kev now doing home deliveries?
 
Wessy Boy said:
Good work Shane, I think you've been more than fair particularly given we've dropped something like 19 points from winning positions

Those five points would put us above Villa in 11th which I think is realistic target for the rest of the season. I'm expecting a couple of Brentford, Fulham or Brighton to run out of steam eventually so we could be in with a good shout of 8th/9th. Given the 6/7 BCCs that would be good achievement given our challenges this season.
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Think it’s almost impossible to pick off Brighton. Probably Brentford too both v decent. Fulham I’ll concede as a sniff to pick off, similar to when we pipped Wolves last season - they are in a slightly false position.
 
shanetko said:
Think it’s almost impossible to pick off Brighton. Probably Brentford too both v decent. Fulham I’ll concede as a sniff to pick off, similar to when we pipped Wolves last season - they are in a slightly false position.
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Fair point, just noticed that Fulham have played two more games than Brighton, and one more than us.
 
The spread betting on us pre season had our points in as 49.5-51.5
It’s presently 42.5-44.
They’re effectively suggesting we’re about 7 points off course which if you change Palace H expectation from D to W that makes us 7 behind.
 
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