buz_not_buzz
Occasional Poster
On a general note I see a lot is understandably made of dwindling passenger numbers & revenues largely as a result of the Pandemic but I would say the figures suggest a steady recovery up until the last quarter of the measurement period (Jan/Feb/Mar) [a quarter which showed a small drop though that was in keeping with pre-pandemic patterns] with journeys over the whole year - a year that included only a gradual reopening - of just under 60% of pre-pandemic levels (& back at the levels of circa 2000) & revenues at nearly 55% (when measured at November 2021 prices). A big, big drop for sure but I am less convinced that it is a terminal one (my own experience as a light rail user these days - occasionally for work, mostly for football & other leisure activities - is of packed trains, some very packed).
Changing work patterns are clearly going to have an impact (flexible season ticketing one approach to that one) but I think that this is also an opportunity for the operating companies if it results in extra capacity at what are/were considered peak times. How many people have decided against using the train because of relatively prohibitive costs at the times they want to travel & therefore don't even bother checking now or because their experience is of uncomfortably packed trains because everybody is squeezing onto the first off-peak ones? A number of peak trains on what is now EMR were absolutely rammed with season ticket holders but as the "peak time" period increased it wasn't uncommon for a significant number of trains to be two thirds empty as people were priced off them. I think there is plenty of opportunity there (not least considering other current ongoing factors).
I recognise that the Strike will be a serious setback to recovery & that there is very little incentive for the TOCs in particular to look at more than the short term (i.e. cost reductions) but a nearly a [American] billion rail journeys & growing over the past year suggests the demand is still there and how we invest to meet the full demand (HS2 not withstanding) is at least as an important a discussion to be having as where can costs be reduced.
Changing work patterns are clearly going to have an impact (flexible season ticketing one approach to that one) but I think that this is also an opportunity for the operating companies if it results in extra capacity at what are/were considered peak times. How many people have decided against using the train because of relatively prohibitive costs at the times they want to travel & therefore don't even bother checking now or because their experience is of uncomfortably packed trains because everybody is squeezing onto the first off-peak ones? A number of peak trains on what is now EMR were absolutely rammed with season ticket holders but as the "peak time" period increased it wasn't uncommon for a significant number of trains to be two thirds empty as people were priced off them. I think there is plenty of opportunity there (not least considering other current ongoing factors).
I recognise that the Strike will be a serious setback to recovery & that there is very little incentive for the TOCs in particular to look at more than the short term (i.e. cost reductions) but a nearly a [American] billion rail journeys & growing over the past year suggests the demand is still there and how we invest to meet the full demand (HS2 not withstanding) is at least as an important a discussion to be having as where can costs be reduced.